[h=1]Breakout pitchers for 2013[/h][h=3]Breaking down five second-year hurlers poised for big things this season[/h]
By Teddy Mitrosilis | ESPN Insider
Was it something Kenley Jansen said? How else do you explain how he was used in 2011?
While Don Mattingly fed other Dodgers relievers more critical innings, Jansen became one of baseball's most dominant relievers. The rookie's 44 percent strikeout rate in 53 2/3 innings led all qualified relievers -- yup, even Mr. Kimbrel.
FanGraphs attempts to measure the pressure, or "leverage," of situations with a stat called leverage index (considers inning, outs, score, runners on base), and Jansen ranked 103rd in 2011. Essentially, in situations that needed any reliever, Jansen pitched. In critical spots that demanded an elite one, Jansen was buried in the Dodger Stadium bullpen hedges.
Because of this, Jansen "broke out" in 2012. He earned a higher-profile bullpen job in his second season and dominated, striking out 39 percent of batters and walking 9 percent in 65 innings with a 2.35 ERA. He threw 94 percent fastballs, which touched the mid-90s and averaged 92 mph. Of course, Jansen's velocity is deceiving. A natural cut makes his 92 more difficult to handle.
So Jansen was a dominant reliever who relied almost exclusively on a cut fastball. Sound familiar? Jansen isn't Mariano Rivera -- there's only one -- but Rivera has topped the 30 percent strikeout rate only once in his career. Just sayin'.
With the opinions of MLB officials mixed in, here are five pitchers who could pull a Jansen and break out in their second seasons in 2013.
<offer>
[h=3]Moore's sneaky good year[/h]
After Matt Moore did this in the 2011 playoffs, nobody could resist projecting. But if Moore's 2012 rookie season displeased you, well, that's on you. Look past the 11-11 record, which means almost nothing, and 3.81 ERA, which is very solid considering age and league.
"To handle that workload as a rookie was impressive, and you could see him figuring things out," one MLB official said.
Sure, Moore had issues. At times, the southpaw wasn't on speaking terms with the strike zone, his 10.7 percent walk rate ranking 107th among qualified starters. Arm-side fastballs could sail like a cheap paper plane. But he did impressive little things. He spun breaking balls for strikes at a league-average clip. He turned his changeup into a weapon against righties, throwing it for 67 percent strikes in fastball counts. He threw 60 percent first-pitch strikes. And Moore threw fastballs by guys at a better rate than all other starters (24 percent).
"He's a typical power guy whose stuff is so good, but he needs to learn to pitch," an AL evaluator said.
Hey, it seems like 2012 was a big step in that direction. No reason 2013 shouldn't be even better.
[h=3]Harvey's unlikely opponent[/h]
Funny thing happened to Matt Harvey at Triple-A Buffalo: Every team he faced had a No. 3 hitter named "Boredom."
Only Harvey knows if he was staring at his Tag Heuer, counting down until his promotion, but evaluators continually use that to explain how he looked like a mid-rotation starter in Triple-A and a potential ace in New York. In July, the Mets had holes and couldn't wait any longer.
"One of the issues was his command," Mets GM Sandy Alderson said. "But we had a need and the stuff was so good we weren't concerned."
Boredom didn't get promoted with Harvey. He struck out 29 percent of batters in 59 1/3 innings with a 2.73 ERA, flashing upper-90s velocity with a plus slider.
With power pitchers such as Harvey, a delicate line separates "too predictable" from "too cute." With a fastball that good, Harvey should use it often and does. But there needs to be a mix. "Not throwing a fastball on every 0-0, 0-1 count will be important," the AL evaluator said.
In the first two pitches of at-bats last season, the righty went heater 66 percent of the time, a top-15 rate in baseball. This isn't a problem, per se. But eventually hitters will cheat and Harvey's command will be imperative. Breaking off a slider or curve to righties and turning over a change to lefties early in the count will help keep hitters off Harvey's fastball.
[h=3]Parker emerges by the Bay[/h]
When the Diamondbacks took Jarrod Parker No. 9 overall in the 2007 draft, this is what they envisioned. A 3.8-WAR rookie season, a 3.47 ERA in 181 1/3 innings. But Oakland offered Trevor Cahill before the 2012 season, and Arizona shipped Parker to the Bay Area as part of a multiplayer deal.
After undergoing Tommy John surgery on his right elbow in late 2009, Parker has emerged as a power-sinker guy capable of leading Oakland's rotation.
"The strikeouts weren't where they were in the minors, and the ground balls weren't the same, but the adjustment takes time," the MLB official said. "He's certainly showing he can make it."
Parker couldn't touch Cahill's MLB-leading 63 percent ground ball rate, but his 44 percent wasn't bad. Parker challenges both sides of the plate with his fastball early in counts, and the run he gets on his two-seamer makes it very difficult to distinguish from his changeup out of the hand. This can be death on lefties, but even right-handed hitters can't eliminate the change in certain counts.
With two strikes against lefties, Parker will sneak a fastball inside, run one off the plate away or get the hitter to wave at a change. Righties could normally expect a slider away or fastball in, but Parker is equally likely to throw a right-on-right change. Not only that, more than half of them will be inside, fooling hitters into thinking it's gas. If you can do that, you're a bad dude.
[h=3]Miley's stealth act of dominance[/h]
Did you forget an Arizona pitcher finished seven points behind Bryce Harper for the NL Rookie of the Year award in 2012? With Trevor Bauer's aptitude and Kirk Gibson's grit dominating conversations this winter, it was easy to forget about Wade Miley. But the lefty deserves attention, because he was really good.
Miley posted a 3.15 FIP and 4.3 percent walk rate, fourth among qualified starters, in 194 2/3 innings. Miley lives on fastball movement and command of his changeup and slider, but he thrives because he's also playing with angles on the mound. He stands on the third-base side of the rubber and lands outside the first-base side -- significantly across his body.
Imagine you're a right-handed hitter. You have this gangly thing throwing seemingly out of right field, and 49 percent of fastballs you see will start away and keep tailing, making them difficult square up. The 28 percent fastballs inside look like they're coming for your navel.
Now you're a lefty facing the lefty Miley. The release point appears to be coming from behind you, making any fastball inside brutal to deal with. Miley can start fastballs away off the plate and bring them back to the corner, and if you get to two strikes, there's a 34 percent chance you're seeing a slider. And, remember, that slider is starting behind you.
[h=3]McGee says 'Hit this'[/h]
Good news: Hitting against Tampa's Jake McGee is not complicated. There's mostly only one thing to worry about, and that's mid-to-upper 90s velocity repeatedly.
"For better or worse, [McGee] does almost all of it with the fastball," the official said. "It's just dominant velocity from the left side."
The lefty struck out 34 percent of batters last season in 55 1/3 innings while walking only 5 percent. Righties? Lefties? Didn't really matter -- he brutalized both. Lefties had a .289 OBP, righties a .157. McGee does have a second pitch, a cutter, which he uses to steal a strike by surprise in a 1-1 count or fool a hitter in a 2-2 count.
Otherwise, a fastball is coming, and the best option is to sit location. McGee favors the glove side heavily against lefties, which helps the hitter, because if he throws a cutter, it will break to the outer half and you have a shot to hang in on it. Righties have the tougher gig against McGee, because he will work both halves of the plate and the cutter is breaking into your hands. If you're sitting on an inside fastball, you probably pull that pitch foul. If you're sitting away, well, you're screwed. That seems to be a common outcome against McGee.
If anything happens to closer Fernando Rodney, McGee could be the next Jansen, "breaking out" in a prime-time role.
</offer>
By Teddy Mitrosilis | ESPN Insider
Was it something Kenley Jansen said? How else do you explain how he was used in 2011?
While Don Mattingly fed other Dodgers relievers more critical innings, Jansen became one of baseball's most dominant relievers. The rookie's 44 percent strikeout rate in 53 2/3 innings led all qualified relievers -- yup, even Mr. Kimbrel.
FanGraphs attempts to measure the pressure, or "leverage," of situations with a stat called leverage index (considers inning, outs, score, runners on base), and Jansen ranked 103rd in 2011. Essentially, in situations that needed any reliever, Jansen pitched. In critical spots that demanded an elite one, Jansen was buried in the Dodger Stadium bullpen hedges.
Because of this, Jansen "broke out" in 2012. He earned a higher-profile bullpen job in his second season and dominated, striking out 39 percent of batters and walking 9 percent in 65 innings with a 2.35 ERA. He threw 94 percent fastballs, which touched the mid-90s and averaged 92 mph. Of course, Jansen's velocity is deceiving. A natural cut makes his 92 more difficult to handle.
So Jansen was a dominant reliever who relied almost exclusively on a cut fastball. Sound familiar? Jansen isn't Mariano Rivera -- there's only one -- but Rivera has topped the 30 percent strikeout rate only once in his career. Just sayin'.
With the opinions of MLB officials mixed in, here are five pitchers who could pull a Jansen and break out in their second seasons in 2013.
<offer>
[h=3]Moore's sneaky good year[/h]
After Matt Moore did this in the 2011 playoffs, nobody could resist projecting. But if Moore's 2012 rookie season displeased you, well, that's on you. Look past the 11-11 record, which means almost nothing, and 3.81 ERA, which is very solid considering age and league.
"To handle that workload as a rookie was impressive, and you could see him figuring things out," one MLB official said.
Sure, Moore had issues. At times, the southpaw wasn't on speaking terms with the strike zone, his 10.7 percent walk rate ranking 107th among qualified starters. Arm-side fastballs could sail like a cheap paper plane. But he did impressive little things. He spun breaking balls for strikes at a league-average clip. He turned his changeup into a weapon against righties, throwing it for 67 percent strikes in fastball counts. He threw 60 percent first-pitch strikes. And Moore threw fastballs by guys at a better rate than all other starters (24 percent).
"He's a typical power guy whose stuff is so good, but he needs to learn to pitch," an AL evaluator said.
Hey, it seems like 2012 was a big step in that direction. No reason 2013 shouldn't be even better.
[h=3]Harvey's unlikely opponent[/h]
Funny thing happened to Matt Harvey at Triple-A Buffalo: Every team he faced had a No. 3 hitter named "Boredom."
Only Harvey knows if he was staring at his Tag Heuer, counting down until his promotion, but evaluators continually use that to explain how he looked like a mid-rotation starter in Triple-A and a potential ace in New York. In July, the Mets had holes and couldn't wait any longer.
"One of the issues was his command," Mets GM Sandy Alderson said. "But we had a need and the stuff was so good we weren't concerned."
Boredom didn't get promoted with Harvey. He struck out 29 percent of batters in 59 1/3 innings with a 2.73 ERA, flashing upper-90s velocity with a plus slider.
With power pitchers such as Harvey, a delicate line separates "too predictable" from "too cute." With a fastball that good, Harvey should use it often and does. But there needs to be a mix. "Not throwing a fastball on every 0-0, 0-1 count will be important," the AL evaluator said.
In the first two pitches of at-bats last season, the righty went heater 66 percent of the time, a top-15 rate in baseball. This isn't a problem, per se. But eventually hitters will cheat and Harvey's command will be imperative. Breaking off a slider or curve to righties and turning over a change to lefties early in the count will help keep hitters off Harvey's fastball.
[h=3]Parker emerges by the Bay[/h]
When the Diamondbacks took Jarrod Parker No. 9 overall in the 2007 draft, this is what they envisioned. A 3.8-WAR rookie season, a 3.47 ERA in 181 1/3 innings. But Oakland offered Trevor Cahill before the 2012 season, and Arizona shipped Parker to the Bay Area as part of a multiplayer deal.
After undergoing Tommy John surgery on his right elbow in late 2009, Parker has emerged as a power-sinker guy capable of leading Oakland's rotation.
"The strikeouts weren't where they were in the minors, and the ground balls weren't the same, but the adjustment takes time," the MLB official said. "He's certainly showing he can make it."
Parker couldn't touch Cahill's MLB-leading 63 percent ground ball rate, but his 44 percent wasn't bad. Parker challenges both sides of the plate with his fastball early in counts, and the run he gets on his two-seamer makes it very difficult to distinguish from his changeup out of the hand. This can be death on lefties, but even right-handed hitters can't eliminate the change in certain counts.
With two strikes against lefties, Parker will sneak a fastball inside, run one off the plate away or get the hitter to wave at a change. Righties could normally expect a slider away or fastball in, but Parker is equally likely to throw a right-on-right change. Not only that, more than half of them will be inside, fooling hitters into thinking it's gas. If you can do that, you're a bad dude.
[h=3]Miley's stealth act of dominance[/h]
Did you forget an Arizona pitcher finished seven points behind Bryce Harper for the NL Rookie of the Year award in 2012? With Trevor Bauer's aptitude and Kirk Gibson's grit dominating conversations this winter, it was easy to forget about Wade Miley. But the lefty deserves attention, because he was really good.
Miley posted a 3.15 FIP and 4.3 percent walk rate, fourth among qualified starters, in 194 2/3 innings. Miley lives on fastball movement and command of his changeup and slider, but he thrives because he's also playing with angles on the mound. He stands on the third-base side of the rubber and lands outside the first-base side -- significantly across his body.
Imagine you're a right-handed hitter. You have this gangly thing throwing seemingly out of right field, and 49 percent of fastballs you see will start away and keep tailing, making them difficult square up. The 28 percent fastballs inside look like they're coming for your navel.
Now you're a lefty facing the lefty Miley. The release point appears to be coming from behind you, making any fastball inside brutal to deal with. Miley can start fastballs away off the plate and bring them back to the corner, and if you get to two strikes, there's a 34 percent chance you're seeing a slider. And, remember, that slider is starting behind you.
[h=3]McGee says 'Hit this'[/h]
Good news: Hitting against Tampa's Jake McGee is not complicated. There's mostly only one thing to worry about, and that's mid-to-upper 90s velocity repeatedly.
"For better or worse, [McGee] does almost all of it with the fastball," the official said. "It's just dominant velocity from the left side."
The lefty struck out 34 percent of batters last season in 55 1/3 innings while walking only 5 percent. Righties? Lefties? Didn't really matter -- he brutalized both. Lefties had a .289 OBP, righties a .157. McGee does have a second pitch, a cutter, which he uses to steal a strike by surprise in a 1-1 count or fool a hitter in a 2-2 count.
Otherwise, a fastball is coming, and the best option is to sit location. McGee favors the glove side heavily against lefties, which helps the hitter, because if he throws a cutter, it will break to the outer half and you have a shot to hang in on it. Righties have the tougher gig against McGee, because he will work both halves of the plate and the cutter is breaking into your hands. If you're sitting on an inside fastball, you probably pull that pitch foul. If you're sitting away, well, you're screwed. That seems to be a common outcome against McGee.
If anything happens to closer Fernando Rodney, McGee could be the next Jansen, "breaking out" in a prime-time role.
</offer>
